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WHY GERMANY CAN'T WIN

By Major Roger Sherman Hoar1

(Major Ordnance Reserves, U. S. Army. Author of "Patent Tactics and Law," and many other books and articles on Legal and Military subjects. America's leading authority on Military Ballistics.)

Here is a significant and authoritative resume of Nazi Germany's chances for victory in the new World War, by an experienced army expert on military tactics, ballistics and economics

1: Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not of tho War Department.

AT a time when every man-on-the-street is freely expressing his opinion on tactical and strategical questions, and particularly on Germany's supposed control of the air, it may not be amiss for a military man to present the view that economic factors rather than military strength are likely to determine the outcome of this new World War which now is upon us, and that nowhere is this more true than as relates to Germany's alleged air-supremacy.

From the purely military viewpoint, the situation at the moment looks pretty black for England and France. England has practically no Army, as European armies go. At a time when even the tiny nations of the continent are talking in terms of millions of men in arms, England has not over 275,000 regulars, not over 450,000 territorials, and not over 100,000 militia. And such troops as she does have, are woefully under-officered.

Although Britannia rules the waves, the British navy will probably limit its functions to continuing to rule the waves. The fleet is no more likely to attack Hamburg or the Kiel Canal than it was eager to force the passage of the Dardanelles in the World War. Nor is the fleet likely to try to enter the Baltic Sea, through the well guarded and thoroughly mined German Sea Barrier extending among the Danish islands from the Swedish peninsula to Denmark. That is why Allied troops could not be landed to aid Poland.

But before we accuse the British fleet of cowardice, let us recall the "first principle of naval versus land warfare" as taught at the Army and Navy service schools, namely that: "One emplaced gun on shore is the equal of an entire warship whose major weapons are of the same caliber as that one gun." Add to this a modern electrically-controlled mine-field, and you see what England was up against.

To revert to the subject of Poland's isolation. Even with Italy keeping out of the War, and with the Mediterranean accordingly open to England and France, Poland was cut off from her allies by Hungary, Rumania and Russia.

Germany's impregnable Siegfried Line, extending from Holland to Switzerland, interposes an apparently insuperable obstacles to France's huge, well-trained, and well-equipped Army, undoubtedly the best in Europe.

Two considerations stood in the way of aiding Poland by air, namely Germany's excellent antiaircraft artillery, and the fact that Poland h...

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