Editing 76-07-A7 (section)

= Crime [And Poverty] =

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=== Transcript ===
A short time ago I talked about crime on this program and suggested there might be a simpler answer than some of the sociological theorizing we've been hearing for so long. Well, now I have company.

A number of top scholars from the halls of academia have been working on this problem with some astonishing results. They are Professor Paul Erlich of the University of Chicago, Professor James Q. Wilson of Harvard and Professor Gordon Tullock of Virginia Polytechnic Institute.

In my opinion, they lay to rest once and for all the theory that poverty causes crime. I myself have remarked many times that we had possibly the lowest crime rate in our history at a time when poverty was most widespread during the years of the Great Depression. But now these scholarly gentlemen have put it in a test tube and come forth with fact and figure.

In the 15 years from 1960 to 1975 we reduced the number of people living below the poverty line by more than half. It was the greatest decline in poverty in our history. In that same period, violent crime increased by two-and-a-half times and property crimes by two and a quarter. Put in percentages, poverty dropped by 55% and crime increased by 160% and 124%.

In their research, the professors went beyond base figures and found substantiation by seeking our high crime areas and poverty pockets. For example, the 15 lowest crime rate states in the nation are all below median income level. The most impoverished ethnic communities are among the lowest in crime rate. By contrast, several of the highest crime rate cities are "rich" communities with very small poverty areas.

Thank Heaven they didn't stop with finding out what doesn't cause crime. They carried their research into what does cause it. And the answer is indeed rather simple -- the main increase in crime is proportionate to the decrease in punishment. Those states which have the best law enforcement, the highest percentage of convictions and the longest prison sentences, have the lowest crime rate. And, generally in recent years a permissive philosophy has led to a reduced penalty for crime. The conviction rate for burglary in our land is less than half what it was in 1960. For murder it is 30% less.

Nationwide in the ten years, between 1960 and 1970, we had 139% increase in crime but our prison population went down 8%. In other words, an offender's chance of going to prison was about twice as great in 1960 as it was in 1970. To wrap up their research, inquiries were made in Canada and England where it was confirmed that punishment does reduce crime.

There is reason to hope. In some of our cities, including New York, special teams of police and prosecutors are zeroing in on repeaters, bringing them to quick trial, and going after stiff sentences -- no plea bargaining. The word is -- it's paying off. 

This is Ronald Reagan.

Thanks for listening.
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=== Details ===
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<TR><TD WIDTH="150">Batch Number</TD><TD WIDTH="150">{{PAGENAME}}</TD></TR>
<TD>Production Date</TD><TD>11/16/[[Radio1976|1976]]</TD></TR>
<TD>Book/Page</TD><TD>[https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/public/2024-07/40-656-7386263-014-002-2024.pdf#page=41 Online PDF]</TD></TR>
<TD>Audio</TD><TD>No</TD></TR>
<TD>Youtube?</TD><TD>No</TD></TR>
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===Added Notes===
* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Q._Wilson James Q. Wilson]
* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Tullock Gordon Tullock]
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